Fri, Mar 21, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 012 | 36 | 332 |
| CBJ | 09 | 06 | 111 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:12CBJNick FolignoUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 1:56NYRDerek StepanAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 11:31NYRDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Anton Stralman, Mats Zuccarello · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 19:21NYRCarl HagelinENAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:09NYRRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:42NYRBenoit Pouliot: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:42CBJDerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:56CBJNathan Horton: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:27CBJFedor Tyutin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:20CBJDalton Prout: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:38CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:06NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:06CBJArtem Anisimov: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:06NYRRick Nash: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:12NYRRick Nash: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:12NYRRick Nash: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:12CBJMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:12CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:32NYRAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stepan – Kreider7:02
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett6:27
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Brassard – Zuccarello9:40
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Richards – Pouliot – Hagelin8:14
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klein – McDonagh2:56
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi3:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh13:38
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Anisimov – Tropp7:14
xG 0.37–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:14
xG 0.41–0.33 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Horton – Johansen – Jenner11:21
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu6:52
xG 0.03–0.21 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Wisniewski16:12
xG 0.45–0.16 (73%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Johnson – Prout15:43
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Nikitin – Savard11:01
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).