Fri, Mar 21, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Boston Bruins 2, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 16 | 112 | 010 | 228 |
| COL | 014 | 010 | 07 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 13:11BOSCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:48BOSKevan Miller: Elbowing2 min
- P1 7:46BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:46COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:54BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:25COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:40BOSShawn Thornton: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith9:31
xG 0.61–0.08 (88%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg9:10
xG 0.39–0.21 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic12:58
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:44
xG 0.08–0.57 (13%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Krug7:40
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton13:25
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug7:12
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBordeleau – Cliche – Malone5:41
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:21
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene12:32
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson16:03
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Guenin – Benoit10:39
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Sarich – Holden6:48
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).