Fri, Mar 21, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 6, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 26 | 29 | 27 | 622 |
| CGY | 19 | 310 | 110 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10NSHVictor BartleyAssists: Craig Smith, Seth Jones · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:59NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Fisher, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P1 19:26CGYKris RussellPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 4:10NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Matt Cullen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 6:23CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Kris Russell · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 7:14CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Mark Giordano, Curtis Glencross · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–3
- P2 8:06NSHViktor StalbergAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–3
- P2 13:31CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Lance Bouma, Brian McGrattan · Snap, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 14:28NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.08 xG5–4
- P3 17:08NSHMatt CullenGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Patric Hornqvist · Tip-in, 0.19 xG6–4
- P3 17:36CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Kris Russell, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:55CGYKenny Agostino: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:06NSHColin Wilson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 9:51NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P3 13:42CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wilson won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Cullen – Fisher – Hornqvist14:31
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 6–18goals 3–1
- Smith – Bourque – Jarnkrok12:55
xG 0.13–0.26 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Nystrom – Stalberg – Wilson10:07
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bartley – Jones7:19
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm17:43
xG 0.43–0.75 (37%)attempts 10–19goals 0–2
- Weber – Josi22:22
xG 0.31–0.84 (27%)attempts 9–23goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Byron – Backlund13:42
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Stajan – Hudler – Glencross14:17
xG 0.69–0.53 (57%)attempts 15–7goals 1–3
- McGrattan – Galiardi – Bouma8:28
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Colborne – Agostino – Monahan12:00
xG 0.18–0.72 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie18:27
xG 0.90–0.42 (68%)attempts 22–4goals 2–2
- Russell – Butler13:17
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Smid – Wotherspoon15:11
xG 0.41–0.65 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).