Sat, Mar 22, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
St. Louis Blues 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 113 | 09 | 011 | 133 |
| PHI | 08 | 28 | 23 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:23STLJaden SchwartzSHAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Vladimir Sobotka · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 0:57PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 13:24PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.45 xG1–2
- P3 15:41PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 17:06PHIWayne SimmondsENAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 4:30STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:59STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:02PHIClaude Giroux: Holding2 min
- P1 15:02PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:22STLT.J. Oshie: Charging2 min
- P1 19:53STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:47PHIClaude Giroux: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:05PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:13STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:13PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:13PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:13STLRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:06STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:06PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:35STLSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:53PHIJakub Voracek: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 19:13PHIAndrew MacDonald: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie8:26
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Berglund – Schwartz6:51
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Ott – Roy – Paajarvi5:44
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Paajarvi – Schwartz2:49
xG 0.05–0.05 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo12:56
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Polak7:04
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk8:01
xG 0.17–0.13 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn8:19
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek10:59
xG 0.63–0.62 (51%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Read – Couturier – Raffl4:10
xG 0.09–0.09 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hall – Rinaldo – Raffl2:48
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann7:57
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn5:56
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Streit – MacDonald3:58
xG 0.04–0.05 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).