Sat, Mar 22, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 18 | 28 | 00 | 324 |
| PIT | 06 | 113 | 29 | 11 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:29PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jeff Zatkoff · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 16:44TBLValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 8:17TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 11:07PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 16:43PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 18:38TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Radko Gudas, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 1:27PITJames NealPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:51TBLRyan Malone: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:05PITRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:32TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:36TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P2 13:53TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:19TBLSami Salo: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:19PITJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:26PITMarcel Goc: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:33TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- OT 1:11TBLMichael Kostka: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Killorn – Stamkos14:06
xG 0.61–0.09 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Malone – Thompson – Pyatt7:32
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Palat11:25
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Panik – Brown10:45
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Gudas15:34
xG 1.01–0.22 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Brewer – Kostka11:56
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Salo – Brewer2:01
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Pyatt – Goc – Glass6:20
xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Adams – Sutter – Gibbons7:10
xG 0.21–0.44 (32%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal10:08
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Stempniak – Crosby12:24
xG 0.31–0.62 (33%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Maatta15:20
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Orpik – Bortuzzo14:25
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Despres11:48
xG 0.20–0.91 (18%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).