Sat, Mar 22, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Ottawa Senators 1, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 012 | 08 | 127 |
| DAL | 017 | 114 | 213 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Colin Greening · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 15:07DALCody EakinAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Jordie Benn · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 4:52DALTrevor DaleyGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 6:58DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (22)
- P1 5:44OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:44DALAaron Rome: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:41OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:41DALJordie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:52OTTCody Ceci: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:56OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:55OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:53DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:53OTTClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:23DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P3 2:47OTTKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:51DALBrenden Dillon: Holding2 min
- P3 12:32DALCody Eakin: Interference2 min
- P3 12:32OTTClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:12DALBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:12OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:12DALRyan Garbutt: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:12OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P3 14:12DALRyan Garbutt: Diving2 min
- P3 14:45DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:45OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DALBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Michalek9:00
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith6:32
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Condra – Hoffman – Zibanejad6:13
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris8:18
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson14:43
xG 0.96–0.55 (64%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Phillips – Ceci7:17
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Gryba – Cowen10:30
xG 0.25–0.82 (23%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Sceviour – Eakin8:49
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Horcoff – Mueller – Chiasson4:50
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:10
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt7:24
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski13:03
xG 1.13–0.72 (61%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Benn2:46
xG 0.03–0.05 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Dillon14:52
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).