Sat, Mar 22, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Washington Capitals 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 06 | 18 | 05 | 2 | 326 |
| SJS | 19 | 016 | 111 | 00 | 1 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:25WSHEric FehrUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:54SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Logan Couture, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 5:07SJSJames SheppardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P3 12:30WSHChris BrownAssists: Dustin Penner, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 3. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. WSH Eric Fehr stopped
- 5. SJS Patrick Marleau scored
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:54SJSMartin Havlat: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:25WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min
- P2 8:13WSHMike Green: Holding2 min
- P2 11:48SJSMike Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 19:49SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:42WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Ovechkin – Beagle – Johansson9:52
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Penner – Brown – Wilson7:34
xG 0.03–0.24 (11%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Kuznetsov9:48
xG 0.27–0.54 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr9:40
xG 0.24–0.50 (32%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson14:02
xG 0.68–0.26 (72%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Orlov – Wey14:25
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Green – Hillen14:15
xG 0.26–0.89 (23%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Sheppard – Wingels10:38
xG 0.67–0.15 (82%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto10:03
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 1–2
- Burish – Brown – Desjardins6:04
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Boyle10:59
xG 0.56–0.16 (77%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Braun – Irwin11:35
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Demers4:40
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).