Sun, Mar 23, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 17 | 110 | 223 |
| NJD | 17 | 28 | 09 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:38NJDDamien BrunnerAssists: Adam Henrique, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:18NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Jon Merrill · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 1:50NJDJon MerrillGWGAssists: Ryane Clowe, Peter Harrold · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 5:26TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 18:29TORPhil KesselAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:07TORColton Orr: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:08NJDMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
- P2 4:16NJDStephen Gionta: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:21NJDAndy Greene: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:04NJDMark Fayne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:01TORNazem Kadri: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBolland – Raymond – Kulemin3:00
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Bodie – Kulemin2:22
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Bolland – Kulemin2:55
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri7:38
xG 0.06–0.21 (23%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Gardiner13:32
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Rielly3:19
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner2:00
xG 0.08–0.31 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zubrus – Zajac13:55
xG 1.14–0.51 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Clowe – Gionta7:36
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Elias – Henrique – Brunner8:58
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrold – Merrill12:25
xG 1.28–0.06 (95%)attempts 17–2goals 2–0
- Fayne – Greene13:55
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky13:07
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).