Sun, Mar 23, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 012 | 17 | 25 | 11 | 425 |
| DET | 26 | 04 | 16 | 00 | 316 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:27DETGustav NyquistAssists: Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 11:57MINJason PominvillePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 4:33MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Matt Moulson, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–2
- P3 6:18MINZach PariseAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 11:43DETTomas TatarAssists: Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 2:15MINMatt MoulsonGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Charlie Coyle · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:56MINCharlie Coyle: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:56DETDavid Legwand: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:47DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:30MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:07DETBrian Lashoff: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Moulson – Coyle10:51
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Niederreiter10:21
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund14:48
xG 0.56–0.47 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Heatley – Haula – Fontaine6:04
xG 0.05–0.16 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon20:52
xG 1.15–0.68 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 2–2
- Blum – Scandella12:05
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Prosser – Brodin13:39
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan10:51
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Emmerton – Andersson – Ferraro5:39
xG 0.05–0.05 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Helm – Glendening13:28
xG 0.54–0.70 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Legwand – Franzen13:27
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser14:13
xG 0.45–0.31 (60%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff12:08
xG 0.16–0.19 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith17:14
xG 0.45–0.72 (39%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).