Sun, Mar 23, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 26 | 04 | 08 | 218 |
| VAN | 215 | 112 | 19 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Marcus Foligno, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 3:29BUFJamie McBainAssists: Brian Flynn, Matt D'Agostini · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 10:12VANBrad RichardsonAssists: Zack Kassian, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 12:48VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Zack Kassian, Brad Richardson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 1:40VANYannick WeberGWGAssists: Zack Kassian, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 2:23VANDavid BoothAssists: Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:04BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 3:04VANDavid Booth: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:00VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:44BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestD'Agostini – Deslauriers – Flynn7:21
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott5:50
xG 0.03–0.01 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ellis – D'Agostini – Flynn4:06
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
- Konopka – Scott – Deslauriers2:36
xG 0.01–0.28 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – McBain2:49
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Ruhwedel14:53
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Ristolainen14:23
xG 0.06–0.97 (5%)attempts 6–23goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Jensen10:01
xG 0.90–0.07 (93%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian5:57
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Hansen10:58
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Richardson – Matthias – Kassian4:29
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Garrison14:56
xG 1.01–0.19 (84%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Edler16:50
xG 0.95–0.30 (76%)attempts 27–10goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa3:48
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).