Sun, Mar 23, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 2, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 214 | 04 | 230 |
| ANA | 18 | 418 | 114 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:57ANAPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 0:15ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 4:08ANAJakob SilfverbergSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 7:59FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Krys Barch, Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 10:00FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 10:55ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 11:56ANACorey PerryAssists: Sami Vatanen, Bryan Allen · Tip-in, 0.27 xG2–5
- P3 6:32ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Teemu Selanne, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:30FLARyan Whitney: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:18ANAKyle Palmieri: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:58FLAScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:07FLASean Bergenheim: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Crabb – Pirri – Wilson9:41
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Gomez – Barch – Hayes7:50
xG 0.39–0.92 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad14:16
xG 0.32–1.21 (21%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck11:41
xG 0.33–1.27 (21%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhitney – Olsen11:01
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Campbell – Whitney2:23
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Robak4:21
xG 0.08–0.34 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Getzlaf – Perry14:01
xG 1.86–0.49 (79%)attempts 18–15goals 3–0
- Beleskey – Bonino – Silfverberg8:19
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano11:48
xG 0.52–0.35 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Perreault – Maroon – Palmieri8:23
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Lindholm8:26
xG 1.56–0.15 (91%)attempts 21–8goals 3–0
- Lovejoy – Lindholm8:06
xG 0.82–0.12 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Allen – Vatanen16:41
xG 1.08–0.57 (65%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).