Mon, Mar 24, 2014·Madison Square Garden, New York
Phoenix Coyotes 3, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 211 | 16 | 04 | 00 | 321 |
| NYR | 010 | 211 | 112 | 13 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Mike Smith · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 8:22PHXJeff HalpernAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 6:10NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Carl Hagelin, Benoit Pouliot · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 10:53NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:51PHXKyle ChipchuraAssists: Zbynek Michalek · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 16:32NYRDan GirardiAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Benoit Pouliot · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 1:56NYRRyan McDonaghGWGAssists: Dan Girardi, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:11NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:09PHXMike Ribeiro: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:30PHXKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:42NYRBenoit Pouliot: Holding2 min
- P2 7:52NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:09PHXDavid Moss: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:09NYRCarl Hagelin: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:39NYRMarc Staal: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Klinkhammer – Boedker8:57
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moss – Chipchura8:10
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
- Erat – Vrbata – Hanzal11:46
xG 0.27–1.20 (18%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – McMillan10:21
xG 0.21–1.17 (15%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Summers – Stone11:32
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson18:47
xG 0.75–1.52 (33%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle14:21
xG 0.32–1.32 (19%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Pouliot – Hagelin12:35
xG 1.35–0.24 (85%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Moore – Boyle – Dorsett8:45
xG 0.82–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello4:55
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider4:10
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh18:55
xG 1.33–0.38 (78%)attempts 25–12goals 2–0
- Staal – Stralman12:02
xG 1.36–0.41 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Staal – Girardi2:14
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).