Mon, Mar 24, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 07 | 115 | 133 |
| DAL | 112 | 19 | 06 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:32DALRay WhitneyPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Sergei Gonchar · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 16:09DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 17:16WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Evander Kane, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.46 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:17WPGEric O'Dell: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 15:02WPGEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:56WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:07DALColton Sceviour: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:22DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:10WPGMark Stuart: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:06DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:06WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:01DALAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Frolik – Kane10:27
xG 0.89–0.34 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Tangradi – Peluso – Cormier3:46
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Slater – Setoguchi – O'Dell10:31
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba11:07
xG 0.92–0.37 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Pardy – Postma7:53
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Ellerby7:45
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Roussel – Garbutt8:20
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin9:52
xG 0.44–0.62 (42%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Whitney – Sceviour – Eakin9:47
xG 0.23–0.48 (32%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Jeffrey – Chiasson4:58
xG 0.01–0.62 (2%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski15:57
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Rome9:25
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
- Benn – Dillon18:39
xG 0.91–1.73 (34%)attempts 21–28goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).