Tue, Mar 25, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
St. Louis Blues 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 223 | 213 | 113 | 549 |
| TOR | 17 | 07 | 211 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:30TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 15:55STLT.J. OshieAssists: Roman Polak, Barret Jackman · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 19:27STLDavid BackesPPAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 7:32STLDavid BackesAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 17:35STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Patrik Berglund · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 4:39TORCarl GunnarssonUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 15:54TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.29 xG4–3
- P3 18:53STLDavid BackesENAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:17STLBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:01TORJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:12TORNikolay Kulemin: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:06STLBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:20TORCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P2 19:22TORDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:22STLBrenden Morrow: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:39STLBrenden Morrow: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie11:05
xG 0.71–0.14 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Morrow – Sobotka – Schwartz9:04
xG 0.64–0.07 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Ott – Berglund – Paajarvi9:04
xG 0.60–0.07 (90%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves7:10
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak14:32
xG 1.29–0.11 (92%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Shattenkirk14:00
xG 0.89–0.15 (86%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:56
xG 1.05–0.56 (65%)attempts 24–16goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Clarkson – Bolland – Raymond4:46
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Bodie2:18
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Clarkson – Kadri2:20
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Bodie – Kulemin6:19
xG 0.04–0.46 (8%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly3:51
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Gleason – Rielly10:43
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson9:52
xG 0.16–0.34 (31%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).