Tue, Mar 25, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Los Angeles Kings 5, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 111 | 315 | 03 | 2 | 536 |
| WSH | 28 | 15 | 110 | 04 | 0 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 7:04WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 2:53LAKMike RichardsPPAssists: Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 17:18WSHDustin PennerAssists: Chris Brown · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 0:45LAKDwight KingAssists: Dustin Brown, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–3
- P3 8:41LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jake Muzzin · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 12:55LAKDustin BrownAssists: Dwight King, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 19:18WSHEvgeny KuznetsovSHAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 2. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
- 3. WSH Eric Fehr stopped
- 4. LAK Jeff Carter scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:35LAKTanner Pearson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:36LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:13WSHMike Green: Holding2 min
- P2 0:56WSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:49LAKJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:50LAKWillie Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:50WSHTroy Brouwer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:55LAKJustin Williams: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:01WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Toffoli3:51
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Stoll – Brown – King11:06
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Richards – Lewis – Clifford4:04
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Kopitar8:16
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty14:11
xG 0.67–0.13 (83%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Doughty2:14
xG 0.55–0.10 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Regehr – Voynov14:46
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPenner – Brown – Wilson4:23
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Beagle – Johansson6:07
xG 0.10–0.08 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Kuznetsov3:35
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Penner – Beagle – Wilson2:00
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Orlov2:41
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson10:20
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Green – Hillen16:14
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).