Tue, Mar 25, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 5, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 414 | 19 | 09 | 532 |
| CAR | 29 | 213 | 06 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Thomas Hickey, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P1 5:26NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P1 6:12NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Calvin de Haan, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P1 10:54NYIMatt MartinAssists: Kevin Czuczman, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–0
- P1 12:38CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Andrei Loktionov, Jay Harrison · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–1
- P1 15:06CARAndrei LoktionovAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Brett Bellemore · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 2:42CARAlexander SeminPPAssists: Jordan Staal, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P2 16:57NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Colin McDonald · Snap, 0.14 xG5–3
- P2 17:19CARNathan GerbeAssists: Jordan Staal, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:29NYIJohan Sundstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 1:36NYIKevin Czuczman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:33CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:17NYIKevin Czuczman: Holding2 min
- P3 8:02CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:08CARAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:12NYIKevin Czuczman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Lee
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Strome8:22
xG 1.42–0.66 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 4–0
- Clutterbuck – Bailey – Nelson11:18
xG 0.96–0.33 (74%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas2:42
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Sundstrom – Halmo4:19
xG 0.04–0.14 (23%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Czuczman12:29
xG 1.19–0.55 (68%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Hamonic – de Haan16:40
xG 1.40–1.04 (57%)attempts 17–18goals 3–1
- Carkner – Donovan9:24
xG 0.18–0.26 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNash – Skinner – Lindholm13:41
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Semin – Gerbe – Staal11:49
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Malhotra – Dwyer – Bowman2:59
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Tlusty – Loktionov8:44
xG 0.44–0.70 (39%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Liles15:42
xG 0.84–0.51 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Harrison – Bellemore9:54
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Sekera – Faulk15:41
xG 0.59–1.26 (32%)attempts 19–18goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).