Tue, Mar 25, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 0, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 05 | 08 | 024 |
| MTL | 010 | 012 | 213 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 10:53MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 16:54MTLDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Rene Bourque · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:29MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:58BUFDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:10BUFMatt D'Agostini: Holding2 min
- P2 6:10BUFMatt D'Agostini: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:47BUFMike Weber: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:19BUFJamie McBain: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:16MTLDouglas Murray: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:05BUFCory Conacher: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:59MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00BUFTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFTyler Ennis: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00MTLAndrei Markov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Flynn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Ellis – Scott – Leino5:30
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Deslauriers – Flynn9:02
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno11:29
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Hodgson – Conacher7:12
xG 0.00–0.24 (2%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – McBain11:59
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers12:17
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Ruhwedel12:55
xG 0.08–0.38 (16%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Eller – Bournival8:03
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Bourque8:29
xG 0.39–0.21 (66%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:16
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:50
xG 0.34–0.23 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Tinordi16:09
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin11:51
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Weaver – Emelin2:22
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).