Tue, Mar 25, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 110 | 013 | 233 |
| CBJ | 26 | 010 | 212 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: Boone Jenner, James Wisniewski · Snap, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 12:46CBJBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Jack Johnson, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 14:55DETGustav NyquistAssists: Riley Sheahan, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 10:58DETGustav NyquistAssists: Tomas Tatar · Deflected, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 6:58CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Matt Calvert, Brandon Dubinsky · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 19:54CBJRyan JohansenENAssists: James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:42DETTodd Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:42CBJNick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:50DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:00CBJNathan Horton: Holding2 min
- P1 11:30DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:21CBJNick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:23DETDavid Legwand: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Tatar – Sheahan11:24
xG 0.87–0.50 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Legwand – Franzen11:16
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Miller – Helm – Glendening2:04
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Miller – Glendening8:05
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith2:32
xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff10:28
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith15:04
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson12:25
xG 0.81–0.40 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu8:17
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Anisimov10:22
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Horton – Johansen – Jenner10:38
xG 0.35–0.90 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Prout16:52
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Schultz – Savard12:08
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski15:50
xG 0.57–0.78 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).