Tue, Mar 25, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 5, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 13 | 19 | 213 | 03 | 2 | 528 |
| NSH | 213 | 19 | 17 | 04 | 1 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33NSHRoman JosiAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Craig Smith · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 9:49NSHRoman JosiAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 19:06COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Paul Stastny, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 8:41COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 14:43NSHMatt CullenAssists: Ryan Ellis, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 12:25COLCody McLeodAssists: Matt Duchene, Andre Benoit · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 15:17NSHMatt CullenAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Ryan Ellis · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 16:01COLNick HoldenAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NSH Calle Jarnkrok scored
- 2. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 3. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 4. COL Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 5. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 6. COL Gabriel Landeskog scored
Penalties (2)
- P2 3:22COLJan Hejda: Interference2 min
- P3 17:49COLNick Holden: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – McGinn – Landeskog10:19
xG 0.98–0.47 (68%)attempts 16–6goals 1–2
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche9:44
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – Carey – Malone6:30
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene6:01
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 3–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie16:52
xG 1.12–0.83 (58%)attempts 19–22goals 2–2
- Sarich – Benoit16:02
xG 0.74–0.65 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Hejda – Johnson19:35
xG 0.52–1.12 (32%)attempts 17–16goals 1–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Bourque – Jarnkrok10:12
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Hornqvist14:10
xG 1.26–0.99 (56%)attempts 17–18goals 2–1
- Clune – Stalberg – Sissons8:54
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Spaling – Wilson12:56
xG 0.45–0.93 (32%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:17
xG 1.15–0.37 (76%)attempts 31–13goals 2–0
- Ellis – Ekholm16:14
xG 1.06–1.11 (49%)attempts 13–20goals 2–2
- Bartley – Del Zotto15:59
xG 0.45–0.73 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).