Tue, Mar 25, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 317 | 26 | 534 |
| EDM | 110 | 07 | 113 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11EDMDavid PerronAssists: Taylor Hall, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 6:28SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–1
- P2 9:57SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 19:29SJSMartin HavlatGWGAssists: Jason Demers · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 1:17SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 13:00SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Brad Stuart · Slap, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 14:56EDMTaylor HallAssists: Andrew Ference, Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.22 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:51EDMRyan Smyth: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:28EDMAndrew Ference: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:43SJSBrad Stuart: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:31EDMTaylor Hall: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:08SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Sheppard – Wingels8:00
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Burish – Brown – Desjardins6:43
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kennedy – Nieto11:23
xG 0.64–0.72 (47%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
- Havlat – Pavelski – Wingels3:32
xG 0.01–0.41 (3%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Braun7:10
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Demers16:14
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Hannan – Boyle10:53
xG 0.40–0.70 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Hendricks – Gordon3:08
xG 0.48–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Perron – Lander2:42
xG 0.45–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins2:42
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lander – Nugent-Hopkins11:54
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Marincin6:01
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Fraser – Klefbom13:58
xG 0.95–0.67 (58%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
- Ference – Schultz4:40
xG 0.29–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).