Wed, Mar 26, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 16 | 26 | 27 | 519 |
| MIN | 19 | 015 | 17 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:39VANDavid BoothUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 17:31MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:57VANDavid BoothUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 19:03VANZack KassianGWGAssists: Brad Richardson · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 11:12VANDaniel SedinAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Jannik Hansen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 12:01VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Chris Higgins · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 12:25MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Erik Haula, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:46VANJason Garrison: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 7:34MINCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:34VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:17MINNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P2 9:47VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P2 13:35VANShawn Matthias: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:57VANDavid Booth: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:39MINKyle Brodziak: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Sestito – Dalpe2:10
xG 0.15–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Hansen – Matthias3:45
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Sedin – Kesler – Jensen6:22
xG 0.16–0.11 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Higgins – Booth – Matthias2:37
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hamhuis – Garrison16:21
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 3–0
- Weber – Stanton13:12
xG 0.13–0.34 (27%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Edler14:52
xG 0.33–0.90 (27%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund12:46
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Cooke – Heatley – Brodziak3:18
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McCormick – Haula – Niederreiter2:18
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Koivu – Moulson – Coyle10:37
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:29
xG 0.76–0.21 (79%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Blum – Scandella11:17
xG 0.68–0.20 (78%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Prosser – Brodin11:35
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).