Thu, Mar 27, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 5, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 29 | 19 | 211 | 529 |
| DET | 09 | 112 | 39 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: P.K. Subban, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:11MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 1:28DETRiley SheahanAssists: Luke Glendening, Brian Lashoff · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 11:03MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 1:24DETTomas TatarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 4:30DETTomas TatarAssists: Tomas Jurco, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 5:48MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 11:15MTLThomas VanekGWGAssists: Andrei Markov, Alexei Emelin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 11:36DETJohan FranzenAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:49MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:27MTLMichael Bournival: Diving2 min
- P1 13:27DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:15DETDavid Legwand: Interference2 min
- P2 6:46DETKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:48MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:59DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Gionta – Bourque – Eller2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- White – Eller – Bournival3:54
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Vanek – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:03
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 11–6goals 3–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:48
xG 0.54–0.68 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Weaver3:11
xG 0.17–0.06 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Subban14:22
xG 0.61–0.62 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 2–4
- Markov – Subban3:22
xG 0.03–0.09 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Sheahan – Jurco10:10
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Bertuzzi – Miller – Glendening5:25
xG 0.19–0.04 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Franzen – Jurco2:39
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Helm – Andersson4:53
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser15:25
xG 0.94–0.66 (58%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
- Kindl – Lashoff9:36
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 3–0
- Kronwall – Smith14:50
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).