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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 27, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa

New York Islanders 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)

Away

New York Islanders

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.

TBL winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NYI0921204024227
TBL0819110045331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 0:29TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Radko Gudas, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:33NYIRyan StromeAssists: Matt Martin, Matt Donovan · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:17NYIMatt DonovanAssists: Frans Nielsen, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P3 5:50TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. TBL Ryan Malone stopped
  2. 2. NYI Ryan Strome stopped
  3. 3. TBL Michael Kostka scored
  4. 4. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
  5. 5. TBL Ondrej Palat scored
  6. 6. NYI Brock Nelson scored
  7. 7. TBL Ryan Callahan stopped
  8. 8. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
  9. 9. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
  10. 10. NYI Cal Clutterbuck stopped
  11. 11. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
  12. 12. NYI Matt Martin stopped
  13. 13. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
  14. 14. NYI Colin McDonald scored
  15. 15. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
  16. 16. NYI Anders Lee stopped
  17. 17. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
  18. 18. NYI John Persson stopped
  19. 19. TBL Tyler Johnson stopped
  20. 20. NYI Thomas Hickey stopped
  21. 21. TBL Matt Carle scored
  22. 22. NYI Casey Cizikas scored
  23. 23. TBL Alex Killorn stopped
  24. 24. NYI Mike Halmo stopped
  25. 25. TBL Sami Salo scored
  26. 26. NYI Johan Sundstrom stopped
Penalties (6)
  1. P2 5:33NYIMike Halmo: Interference2 min
  2. P2 14:12TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 19:41TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 0:34TBLRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 13:42NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
  6. OT 3:51NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
48% to win52% to win
← NYI attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Filppula
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYITBL
27Shots on goal31
2.3Expected goals2.1
53Shot attempts56
26Faceoffs won34
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
23Hits21
13Blocked shots18
5Giveaways14
8Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

New York Islanders

Forward lines

  1. bestNielsen – Bailey – Lee14:17

    xG 0.90–0.24 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1

  2. McDonald – Martin – Strome12:19

    xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0

  3. Cizikas – Sundstrom – Halmo7:15

    xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0

  4. Clutterbuck – Nelson – Persson10:15

    xG 0.33–0.64 (34%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestCarkner – Donovan10:24

    xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0

  2. Hickey – Czuczman11:11

    xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2

  3. Hickey – Hamonic2:54

    xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestJohnson – Kucherov – Brown10:12

    xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0

  2. Filppula – Callahan – Killorn4:24

    xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0

  3. Purcell – Killorn – Stamkos9:04

    xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0

  4. Purcell – Stamkos – Palat2:56

    xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Brewer – Kostka10:01

    xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1

  2. Carle – Kostka4:15

    xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  3. Brewer – Gudas3:19

    xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.1 xGNYI 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 55/100 · #503 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.68 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.

TBL winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).