Thu, Mar 27, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 1, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 115 | 014 | 133 |
| NSH | 415 | 16 | 113 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:26NSHColton SissonsAssists: Rich Clune, Eric Nystrom · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:44NSHColin WilsonGWGAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Nick Spaling · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P1 11:53NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Craig Smith · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P1 19:17NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 2:06BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Brian Flynn, Johan Larsson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 6:19NSHShea WeberAssists: Roman Josi, Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 19:20NSHEric NystromAssists: Rich Clune · Snap, 0.11 xG1–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:04BUFHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:28BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 14:28NSHVictor Bartley: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:39BUFCory Conacher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:47BUFJohan Larsson: Delaying game2 min
- P2 12:37NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:20NSHColin Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 19:58NSHMichael Del Zotto: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:58NSHRich Clune: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:58BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Scott – Ennis4:06
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Hodgson – Deslauriers12:13
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Conacher – Flynn12:05
xG 0.33–0.79 (29%)attempts 8–17goals 1–2
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno9:50
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 6–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Ruhwedel13:32
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
- Tallinder – McBain2:44
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Ristolainen13:12
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNystrom – Clune – Sissons11:36
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Stalberg – Spaling – Wilson10:15
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Smith – Bourque – Jarnkrok11:13
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Hornqvist10:58
xG 0.44–0.60 (43%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:46
xG 0.74–0.48 (61%)attempts 17–14goals 3–0
- Ellis – Ekholm17:21
xG 0.65–0.41 (62%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Bartley – Del Zotto13:14
xG 0.73–0.55 (57%)attempts 9–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).