Thu, Mar 27, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 110 | 110 | 010 | 01 | 231 |
| COL | 18 | 112 | 07 | 11 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:50VANYannick WeberPPAssists: Nicklas Jensen, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 15:40COLMatt DucheneAssists: Andre Benoit, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:58COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Paul Stastny, Cory Sarich · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 18:38VANZack KassianAssists: Dan Hamhuis, David Booth · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 0:55COLTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:12COLBrad Malone: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:00COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:00COLTyson Barrie: Interference2 min
- P2 2:23COLPatrick Bordeleau: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:23VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:07VANNicklas Jensen: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:24COLAndre Benoit: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:49COLAndre Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:01VANShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:46VANJannik Hansen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Booth – Kassian12:17
xG 0.84–0.18 (83%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Sedin – Hansen – Matthias11:28
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Sestito – Schroeder – Jensen2:46
xG 0.01–0.03 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Kesler10:45
xG 0.34–0.64 (35%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Weber2:46
xG 0.39–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Edler – Garrison2:12
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Edler – Stanton3:00
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Duchene – MacKinnon10:25
xG 0.69–0.19 (78%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Stastny – McGinn – Landeskog8:09
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon4:49
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene3:51
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson13:40
xG 0.59–0.28 (67%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Sarich – Benoit10:36
xG 0.56–0.31 (65%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Holden – Barrie9:32
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).