Fri, Mar 28, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 014 | 223 | 112 | 349 |
| OTT | 213 | 15 | 211 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25OTTErik CondraSHAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 19:30OTTCody CeciAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 0:23OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza, Ales Hemsky · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 10:46CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Antti Raanta · Tip-in, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 19:19CHIMarian HossaUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 6:00OTTKyle TurrisPPGWGAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–4
- P3 10:54OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 17:00CHIBrent SeabrookSHAssists: Michal Handzus, Peter Regin · Slap, 0.06 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:06OTTClarke MacArthur: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:57OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:57CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:54OTTChris Neil: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:56OTTJared Cowen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:09CHIMatt Carey: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P3 11:57OTTJared Cowen: Interference2 min
- P3 13:23OTTEric Gryba: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:33CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:33CHIAndrew Shaw: Spearing5 min
- P3 14:33CHIAndrew Shaw: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 14:33OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:33OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Kruger – Bollig8:56
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hossa – Versteeg – Toews5:43
xG 0.36–0.16 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Handzus – Sharp – Shaw3:10
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Handzus – Hossa – Sharp7:48
xG 0.25–0.25 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Leddy12:37
xG 1.17–0.15 (89%)attempts 22–3goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook15:51
xG 1.10–1.05 (51%)attempts 17–18goals 0–2
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson12:09
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone13:00
xG 1.02–0.72 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Michalek13:41
xG 0.75–0.96 (44%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Condra – Hoffman – Zibanejad6:20
xG 0.10–0.31 (24%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith7:10
xG 0.02–0.58 (3%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson18:06
xG 1.54–0.57 (73%)attempts 18–18goals 2–1
- Gryba – Cowen12:33
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci11:04
xG 0.19–0.98 (16%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).