Fri, Mar 28, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 3, Dallas Stars 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 05 | 29 | 114 | 328 |
| DAL | 29 | 314 | 26 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:03DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Antoine Roussel, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:05DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Colton Sceviour, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 2:53NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Roman Josi · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 5:37DALColton SceviourAssists: Trevor Daley, Alex Goligoski · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 8:58DALAlex ChiassonPPGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–4
- P2 9:53NSHMichael Del ZottoAssists: Craig Smith, Calle Jarnkrok · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 11:19DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 1:48NSHEric NystromAssists: Colton Sissons, Rich Clune · Slap, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 7:39DALValeri NichushkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–6
- P3 7:48DALCody EakinAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–7
Penalties (2)
- P1 4:04DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P2 7:43NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fisher – Hornqvist8:33
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Smith – Bourque – Jarnkrok11:30
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Nystrom – Clune – Sissons10:27
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Stalberg – Spaling – Wilson3:37
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm17:14
xG 0.84–0.35 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Weber – Josi20:24
xG 1.11–0.74 (60%)attempts 30–21goals 2–4
- Bartley – Del Zotto13:31
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour11:53
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Whitney – Jeffrey – Chiasson11:27
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt13:30
xG 0.38–0.51 (43%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin13:24
xG 0.45–0.90 (33%)attempts 14–21goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski19:53
xG 0.88–0.38 (70%)attempts 16–21goals 5–0
- Gonchar – Rome12:30
xG 0.35–0.82 (30%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
- Benn – Dillon19:41
xG 0.50–1.06 (32%)attempts 15–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).