Fri, Mar 28, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Rangers 3, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 018 | 312 | 011 | 341 |
| CGY | 210 | 212 | 06 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51CGYJoe ColbornePPAssists: TJ Brodie, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 16:49CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 2:12NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Derek Dorsett, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–2
- P2 2:51NYRRaphael DiazAssists: Brad Richards · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 5:39NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Carl Hagelin, Benoit Pouliot · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 13:49CGYKevin WestgarthAssists: Matt Stajan, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–3
- P2 19:52CGYMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Chris Butler · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:03NYRDerek Dorsett: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:46CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:52NYRMartin St. Louis: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Boyle – Dorsett7:59
xG 1.70–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 1–0
- Richards – Pouliot – Hagelin11:02
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Nash – Stepan13:18
xG 0.52–0.53 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Miller7:10
xG 0.39–1.20 (25%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh19:32
xG 1.51–0.78 (66%)attempts 24–16goals 0–2
- Staal – Stralman13:04
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Diaz6:01
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Cammalleri – Byron – Backlund7:23
xG 0.78–0.78 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Bouma3:13
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Hudler – Glencross12:32
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
- Byron – Colborne – Monahan4:25
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Wotherspoon2:06
xG 0.86–0.11 (88%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Butler – Wotherspoon2:28
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Wotherspoon5:12
xG 0.08–0.25 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).