Fri, Mar 28, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 116 | 116 | 07 | 351 |
| EDM | 15 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35ANANick BoninoAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sami Vatanen · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:43EDMSam GagnerAssists: David Perron, Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 10:22EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Martin Marincin · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 15:23ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 8:26EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: David Perron, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 15:30ANAMathieu PerreaultAssists: Patrick Maroon, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 3:51EDMAndrew FerenceGWGAssists: David Perron · Slap, 0.00 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:04EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:04ANADaniel Winnik: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:04EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:18EDMDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:18ANAStephane Robidas: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:24EDMMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:02ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:02EDMTaylor Hall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:48EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:48ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:43ANAStephane Robidas: Interference2 min
- OT 0:21EDMAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min
- OT 2:00EDMJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 2:39ANAMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Perreault – Maroon9:32
xG 1.30–0.21 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Bonino16:11
xG 1.02–0.33 (76%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Silfverberg – Rakell5:31
xG 0.52–0.21 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell2:59
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Vatanen18:39
xG 1.47–0.20 (88%)attempts 25–10goals 2–0
- Robidas – Sbisa13:30
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
- Lovejoy – Lindholm12:04
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lander – Nugent-Hopkins3:35
xG 0.15–0.05 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Smyth – Hendricks – Gordon3:43
xG 0.03–0.09 (27%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Perron – Hall5:41
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:47
xG 0.31–0.56 (35%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Marincin – Belov9:41
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Petry – Marincin2:22
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ference – Schultz2:38
xG 0.08–0.49 (14%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).