Sat, Mar 29, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Boston Bruins 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 015 | 310 | 111 | 436 |
| WSH | 09 | 112 | 112 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:48BOSJarome IginlaAssists: Carl Soderberg, David Krejci · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 7:35BOSCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 8:16BOSJarome IginlaGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.32 xG3–0
- P2 19:50WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Mike Green, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
- P3 13:17BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–1
- P3 19:05WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Troy Brouwer, John Erskine · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:43WSHJohn Erskine: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:42BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:38BOSCarl Soderberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:47WSHEric Fehr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:16WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:30BOSAndrej Meszaros: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:40WSHAlex Ovechkin: Charging2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic11:46
xG 0.80–0.43 (65%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith9:43
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:28
xG 0.09–0.08 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg10:20
xG 0.09–0.79 (10%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk2:11
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Chara – Hamilton10:45
xG 0.85–0.39 (68%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Miller – Krug9:41
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Fehr10:00
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Backstrom – Kuznetsov7:45
xG 0.46–0.31 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Beagle – Kuznetsov2:16
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Penner – Brown – Wilson6:28
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Green – Orlov17:47
xG 0.67–0.75 (47%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson12:26
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Erskine – Wey10:38
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).