Sat, Mar 29, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 211 | 15 | 13 | 419 |
| FLA | 010 | 112 | 015 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:47MTLThomas VanekAssists: P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 17:03MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Alexei Emelin, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 14:00MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 16:09FLABrad BoyesAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 19:36MTLDavid DesharnaisENAssists: Max Pacioretty, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:48MTLAndrei Markov: Interference2 min
- P1 3:48MTLRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:08FLATomas Fleischmann: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:02FLAErik Gudbranson: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:36FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:36MTLGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:39FLAColby Robak: Holding2 min
- P2 11:41MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:47FLABrandon Pirri: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:42MTLFrancis Bouillon: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:28MTLRyan White: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:28FLAJimmy Hayes: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:19FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:23
xG 1.12–0.86 (57%)attempts 8–13goals 2–1
- Parros – White – Bournival3:36
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Bourque7:54
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk7:05
xG 0.01–0.62 (2%)attempts 1–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Weaver13:06
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Subban8:58
xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin11:59
xG 0.28–0.94 (23%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck8:03
xG 0.41–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad11:44
xG 0.78–0.46 (63%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Winchester – Pirri – Howden3:11
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Gomez – Barch – Hayes4:06
xG 0.05–0.34 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Robak7:35
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson10:31
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Gudbranson2:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).