Sat, Mar 29, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 18 | 111 | 12 | 332 |
| CAR | 07 | 111 | 17 | 02 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:29CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Elias Lindholm, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 18:46CBJMatt CalvertUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 6:38CARAndrei LoktionovPPAssists: Riley Nash, Jay Harrison · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 7:28CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Nathan Horton, Nick Foligno · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–2
- OT 2:40CBJRyan JohansenPPGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P3 1:04CBJBoone Jenner: Interference2 min
- P3 6:01CBJCorey Tropp: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:31CBJDalton Prout: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:31CBJBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:31CARPatrick Dwyer: Roughing2 min
- OT 1:54CARJiri Tlusty: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Foligno – Anisimov12:41
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Letestu8:16
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Tropp – Johansen – Jenner10:24
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson11:57
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Prout19:38
xG 0.78–0.33 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski17:24
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Savard13:54
xG 0.46–1.06 (30%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Loktionov13:10
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm7:36
xG 0.64–0.40 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- Semin – Gerbe – Staal13:30
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Faulk19:33
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 24–11goals 0–1
- Harrison – Bellemore11:51
xG 0.84–0.51 (62%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Liles16:00
xG 0.29–0.66 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).