Sat, Mar 29, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 29 | 16 | 427 |
| STL | 09 | 116 | 110 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53DALColton SceviourAssists: Shawn Horcoff · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 7:21DALColton SceviourAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Vernon Fiddler · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 14:16STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 14:41DALCody EakinGWGAssists: Jordie Benn, Antoine Roussel · Slap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 0:49STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: David Backes, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 7:56DALAntoine RousselAssists: Jordie Benn, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:05STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:12STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:12DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:14STLIan Cole: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:32DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00STLT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00DALBrenden Dillon: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:32DALAaron Rome: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:08STLRoman Polak: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:51DALSergei Gonchar: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:46DALTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:49
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin8:44
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour9:51
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Whitney – Jeffrey – Chiasson4:57
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon18:28
xG 1.10–0.53 (68%)attempts 17–16goals 3–0
- Gonchar – Benn2:44
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Rome5:26
xG 0.16–0.19 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Berglund – Schwartz10:05
xG 0.53–0.11 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves5:43
xG 0.16–0.15 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Steen – Backes – Oshie11:35
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ott – Roy8:12
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:40
xG 0.64–0.40 (62%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Shattenkirk10:45
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo2:12
xG 0.04–0.03 (58%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).