Sun, Mar 30, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 213 | 06 | 01 | 2 | 430 |
| PHI | 211 | 016 | 117 | 08 | 1 | 352 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Adam Hall · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:43BOSAndrej MeszarosAssists: Brad Marchand, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:18PHIKimmo TimonenAssists: Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 5:44BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 11:05BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Reilly Smith, Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:35PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 2. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 4. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 5. PHI Michael Raffl stopped
- 6. BOS Jarome Iginla stopped
- 7. PHI Matt Read stopped
- 8. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 9. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 10. BOS Reilly Smith scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:51PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:51BOSJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:13BOSKevan Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:33PHIAdam Hall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:11BOSChris Kelly: Interference2 min
- P2 7:25PHIScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:15BOSDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:28BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith12:38
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg12:02
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:21
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic12:09
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chara – Hamilton17:12
xG 0.74–0.69 (52%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Meszaros15:33
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Bartkowski – Miller14:01
xG 0.16–1.41 (10%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – McGinn8:19
xG 1.19–0.26 (82%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Read – Couturier – Raffl11:49
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Hall – Rinaldo5:08
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:09
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Schenn15:36
xG 1.30–0.43 (75%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann3:41
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Streit – MacDonald2:12
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).