Sun, Mar 30, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 3, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 19 | 17 | 03 | 0 | 326 |
| NSH | 211 | 08 | 17 | 03 | 1 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 5:55NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Shea Weber, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P1 18:30NSHPatric HornqvistUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 14:22WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 8:23NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Fisher, Matt Cullen · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 12:20WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: John Carlson · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NSH Calle Jarnkrok stopped
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 3. NSH Craig Smith scored
- 4. WSH Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 5. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 6. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:16WSHPatrick Wey: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:16NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:20NSHPatric Hornqvist: Holding2 min
- P2 8:14NSHRyan Ellis: Holding2 min
- P2 8:14WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:43NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:53NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:57NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Backstrom – Kuznetsov5:25
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Penner – Grabovski – Wilson4:30
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Penner – Kuznetsov – Wilson3:26
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Grabovski – Beagle7:31
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Green – Orlov18:02
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Wey – Brouillette2:36
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson16:52
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Bourque – Jarnkrok8:57
xG 0.93–0.16 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Hornqvist14:57
xG 0.90–0.32 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 3–1
- Nystrom – Clune – Sissons9:30
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Wilson – Van Guilder6:40
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:03
xG 1.65–0.20 (89%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Bartley – Del Zotto13:23
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm18:17
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).