Mon, Mar 31, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 06 | 012 | 04 | 0 | 131 |
| OTT | 19 | 010 | 09 | 01 | 1 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Ales Hemsky · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:03CARJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 2. CAR Riley Nash stopped
- 3. OTT Ales Hemsky scored
- 4. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 5. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 6. CAR Elias Lindholm stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:32CARCam Ward: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 11:53OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Interference2 min
- P2 18:10OTTEric Gryba: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:20OTTKyle Turris: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:00CARDrayson Bowman: Hooking2 min
- OT 2:49OTTEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:49CARNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Bowman2:59
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Bowman4:25
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Dwyer – Bowman3:06
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal3:02
xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Liles15:28
xG 0.37–0.32 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Liles – Harrison2:30
xG 0.01–0.08 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Harrison – Bellemore10:30
xG 0.16–0.52 (24%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Michalek – Zibanejad13:53
xG 1.28–0.46 (73%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone12:48
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Kassian – Condra – Pageau4:23
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Hoffman11:55
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci9:15
xG 1.09–0.21 (84%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Phillips – Gryba14:03
xG 0.76–0.32 (71%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Methot – Gryba2:46
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).