Mon, Mar 31, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Winnipeg Jets 4, Anaheim Ducks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 219 | 212 | 06 | 00 | 437 |
| ANA | 04 | 17 | 324 | 11 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Michael Frolik, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:39WPGMatt HalischukAssists: Evander Kane, Eric O'Dell · Tip-in, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 0:33WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Ondrej Pavelec · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 10:54WPGEric TangradiAssists: Zach Redmond, Anthony Peluso · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 17:44ANANick BoninoAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Patrick Maroon · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 3:06ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 4:16ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Daniel Winnik, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
- P3 19:37ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 0:16ANAStephane RobidasGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Luca Sbisa · Slap, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:54ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:26ANALuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:17WPGAnthony Peluso: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:47WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:47ANAMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:11ANAStephane Robidas: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSlater – Tangradi – Peluso6:54
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik16:16
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Halischuk – O'Dell – Kane10:42
xG 0.56–1.12 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Redmond8:18
xG 0.77–0.46 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Enstrom – Pardy2:44
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba10:43
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Winnik – Palmieri2:19
xG 0.76–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Bonino – Silfverberg4:49
xG 0.55–0.04 (93%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano8:24
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Bonino – Palmieri4:20
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Sbisa11:07
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Lindholm9:03
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Allen – Vatanen10:07
xG 0.92–0.94 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).