Tue, Apr 1, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 111 | 110 | 04 | 2 | 235 |
| BUF | 08 | 04 | 211 | 04 | 3 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:16NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Michael Ryder, Damien Brunner · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 1:39BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Ville Leino, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 4:41BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 6:58NJDTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Andy Greene, Marek Zidlicky · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
- 2. NJD Jacob Josefson scored
- 3. BUF Cody Hodgson stopped
- 4. NJD Damien Brunner stopped
- 5. BUF Zemgus Girgensons stopped
- 6. NJD Marek Zidlicky stopped
- 7. BUF Drew Stafford scored
- 8. NJD Jaromir Jagr scored
- 9. BUF Marcus Foligno stopped
- 10. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
- 11. BUF Cory Conacher stopped
- 12. NJD Tuomo Ruutu stopped
- 13. BUF Brian Flynn stopped
- 14. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 15. BUF Matt D'Agostini stopped
- 16. NJD Adam Henrique stopped
- 17. BUF Ville Leino scored
- 18. NJD Mike Sislo stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:25NJDPatrik Elias: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:26BUFBrian Flynn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:32NJDSteve Bernier: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:35BUFVille Leino: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:18NJDJacob Josefson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Henrique – Sislo8:34
xG 0.83–0.06 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Ruutu – Zajac13:06
xG 0.88–0.13 (87%)attempts 15–2goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Ryder – Brunner9:37
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Ryder – Josefson2:58
xG 0.05–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Harrold16:11
xG 1.19–0.17 (88%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene15:45
xG 0.48–0.38 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Gelinas – Larsson11:07
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Leino – Ennis8:13
xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- D'Agostini – Foligno – Larsson10:17
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ellis – Scott – Leino2:05
xG 0.12–0.02 (89%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Flynn – Girgensons12:52
xG 0.47–0.52 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tallinder – Ristolainen13:59
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Ruhwedel16:00
xG 0.46–0.66 (41%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain2:47
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).