Tue, Apr 1, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Florida Panthers 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 15 | 08 | 19 | 222 |
| NYI | 111 | 217 | 112 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50FLAQuinton HowdenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 2:35NYITravis HamonicPPAssists: Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:18NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Colin McDonald, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 17:36NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Colin McDonald · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–3
- P3 4:21NYIMike HalmoAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–4
- P3 19:54FLABrandon PirriPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:42FLAJonathan Racine: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:55FLAJimmy Hayes: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:42FLAScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:41NYIMatt Carkner: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:41FLAErik Gudbranson: Instigator2 min
- P1 17:41NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:41FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:41FLAErik Gudbranson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:01NYIJosh Bailey: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:53NYIThomas Hickey: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:12NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:12FLAKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:43FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P3 19:04NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Pirri – Trocheck4:01
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck3:54
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Barch – Hayes – Pirri3:24
xG 0.02–0.04 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Boyes – Bergenheim2:18
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Olsen3:21
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Robak – Olsen9:31
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov15:34
xG 0.21–0.66 (24%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Strome8:22
xG 0.64–0.14 (83%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Sundstrom – Halmo6:54
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee11:46
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Nelson – Persson9:07
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan13:07
xG 0.86–0.38 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Carkner – Donovan8:14
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Hickey – Czuczman12:30
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).