Tue, Apr 1, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 212 | 15 | 428 |
| PIT | 114 | 06 | 011 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:01PITChris KunitzAssists: Lee Stempniak, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:39CARJustin FaulkUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 9:24CARElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Andrei Loktionov · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 14:57CARElias LindholmAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 11:47CAREric StaalAssists: Andrei Loktionov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:26CARRon Hainsey: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 9:41PITDeryk Engelland: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:41CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:32PITJames Neal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:46CARNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:13PITSidney Crosby: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:13CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNash – Skinner – Lindholm10:10
xG 0.24–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal12:15
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Terry – Loktionov11:59
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Malhotra – Bowman8:51
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Bellemore6:08
xG 0.61–0.23 (72%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Harrison2:16
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Liles14:01
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Neal – Bennett12:56
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–2
- Kunitz – Crosby – Gibbons2:55
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Megna7:34
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Stempniak – Crosby9:57
xG 0.10–0.20 (32%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Niskanen2:28
xG 0.12–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Engelland12:21
xG 0.13–0.18 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Scuderi – Bortuzzo2:54
xG 0.02–0.11 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).