Tue, Apr 1, 2014·Verizon Center, Washington
Dallas Stars 5, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 114 | 215 | 27 | 536 |
| WSH | 012 | 010 | 013 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:08DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 9:16DALRay WhitneyAssists: Alex Chiasson, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 9:50DALDustin JeffreyAssists: Alex Chiasson, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 9:55DALDustin JeffreyAssists: Ray Whitney, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–0
- P3 14:50DALRyan GarbuttSHAssists: Vernon Fiddler · Backhand, 0.22 xG5–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:39DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P1 9:11WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:59WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:47WSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:38DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:54DALBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:15DALAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:44DALCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:43WSHEric Fehr: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Jeffrey – Chiasson5:48
xG 0.62–0.19 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 3–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour9:25
xG 0.55–0.44 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:30
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt11:37
xG 0.11–0.33 (26%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon12:10
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Nemeth10:36
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Daley – Goligoski17:05
xG 0.89–1.14 (44%)attempts 14–25goals 2–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov3:17
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Grabovski – Beagle6:54
xG 0.30–0.20 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Beagle – Brown – Wilson2:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr9:57
xG 0.37–0.38 (50%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov15:48
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Carlson – Orlov2:26
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson11:19
xG 0.60–0.63 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).