Tue, Apr 1, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 010 | 06 | 126 |
| TBL | 010 | 111 | 212 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:18MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 9:19TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 12:41TBLTyler JohnsonSHGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 19:15TBLAlex KillornENAssists: Ondrej Palat, JT Brown · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 11:19TBLRyan Malone: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:43MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P2 8:43MTLFrancis Bouillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:51TBLRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P2 11:09MTLThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:21TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:32MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:56MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:14TBLNate Thompson: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:00MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:05MTLAlexei Emelin: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:47MTLDouglas Murray: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 17:47MTLMike Weaver: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:47TBLTyler Johnson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk8:08
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Brière – Gionta – Eller6:39
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bourque – White – Bournival4:41
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Vanek – Desharnais – Pacioretty11:28
xG 0.38–0.98 (28%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Subban9:46
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Murray – Weaver11:39
xG 0.54–0.45 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin14:47
xG 0.51–1.08 (32%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Palat10:31
xG 0.94–0.40 (70%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Purcell – Stamkos – Brown7:53
xG 0.60–0.54 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov8:21
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Malone – Thompson – Pyatt7:52
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Kostka3:45
xG 0.66–0.12 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Salo – Brewer4:35
xG 0.34–0.10 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brewer – Gudas3:09
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).