Tue, Apr 1, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Rangers 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 013 | 16 | 331 |
| VAN | 011 | 111 | 013 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59NYRDaniel CarcilloAssists: Derek Dorsett, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P1 14:43NYRBenoit PouliotPPGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 6:21VANRyan KeslerAssists: Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 10:15NYRMartin St. LouisSHAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:29VANTom Sestito: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00VANBrad Richardson: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:04NYRCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:04NYRBrian Boyle: Interference2 min
- P3 19:16VANAlexandre Burrows: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:16VANAlexandre Burrows: Elbowing5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Carcillo – Dorsett8:14
xG 0.72–0.33 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Brassard – Zuccarello10:32
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Hagelin – Stepan10:53
xG 0.36–0.32 (52%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Richards – Moore12:18
xG 0.23–0.52 (31%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Diaz8:22
xG 0.56–0.07 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal3:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh17:08
xG 0.87–0.83 (51%)attempts 11–24goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Burrows – Kesler14:06
xG 0.76–0.08 (91%)attempts 23–2goals 1–0
- Higgins – Matthias – Jensen9:05
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Richardson – Booth – Hansen2:53
xG 0.03–0.04 (41%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian9:04
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Edler19:00
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Garrison14:51
xG 0.71–0.70 (50%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Weber – Stanton13:21
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).