Wed, Apr 2, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 114 | 06 | 17 | 227 |
| OTT | 013 | 07 | 116 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:09NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Matt Donovan · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 6:41OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Chris Neil, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–1
- P3 9:31NYICasey CizikasPPGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:30NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:13NYICalvin de Haan: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:55OTTMark Stone: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:21OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:38OTTMika Zibanejad: Holding2 min
- P2 18:30NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:17NYIJohan Sundstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:14OTTEric Gryba: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:57NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Strome10:21
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Sundstrom – Halmo8:12
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Nelson – Persson9:11
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee10:14
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Donovan13:53
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan16:24
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 10–24goals 0–0
- Hickey – Czuczman14:17
xG 0.16–0.70 (18%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Michalek – Zibanejad11:45
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone12:16
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Kassian – Condra – Pageau4:35
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Hoffman11:22
xG 0.28–0.51 (36%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson17:16
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci4:11
xG 0.08–0.05 (59%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Phillips – Ceci7:26
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).