Wed, Apr 2, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 014 | 110 | 235 |
| DET | 04 | 17 | 29 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:50BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: Chris Kelly, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 4:45DETTomas TatarAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Jakub Kindl · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 1:10BOSCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 11:06DETTomas JurcoAssists: Tomas Tatar, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- P3 12:48DETGustav NyquistGWGAssists: David Legwand · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:39DETGustav Nyquist: Holding2 min
- P2 2:45BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:12DETBrian Lashoff: Holding2 min
- P2 13:54DETTomas Jurco: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:00BOSJordan Caron: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:57DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Lucic12:27
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:49
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Caron8:51
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith10:52
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug11:17
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Miller2:34
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton12:54
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco9:07
xG 0.49–0.44 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Legwand – Franzen – Nyquist11:41
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Miller – Abdelkader – Glendening7:28
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Helm – Andersson3:21
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Smith11:38
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Kindl – Lashoff10:51
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith4:15
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).