Wed, Apr 2, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 113 | 18 | 232 |
| ANA | 09 | 06 | 311 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:04EDMPhilip LarsenPPAssists: Martin Marincin, David Perron · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 2:51EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P3 3:28ANACorey PerryAssists: Matt Beleskey, Frederik Andersen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 11:25ANACorey PerryAssists: Stephane Robidas · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 18:39ANAFrancois BeaucheminGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:55EDMWill Acton: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:55ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:55EDMWill Acton: Holding2 min
- P1 17:15EDMSam Gagner: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:32ANAKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:37EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:37ANALuca Sbisa: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:09ANAMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:11EDMMartin Marincin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:11ANAAndrew Cogliano: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:22EDMRyan Smyth: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:52ANAMatt Beleskey: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:47
xG 1.30–0.32 (80%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Gagner – Perron – Lander11:26
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gordon – Pinizzotto8:28
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom12:54
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Fraser – Belov9:33
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Petry – Marincin11:22
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell3:19
xG 0.54–0.10 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Bonino9:21
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey4:32
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 3–0
- Selanne – Beleskey – Rakell6:14
xG 0.17–0.33 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Beauchemin16:47
xG 0.78–0.45 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Allen – Sbisa11:20
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Lindholm13:38
xG 0.56–0.99 (36%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).