Thu, Apr 3, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 09 | 217 | 01 | 338 |
| TOR | 210 | 111 | 05 | 15 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:00TORPaul RangerAssists: Jerry D'Amigo, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:56BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 19:48TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 0:52TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 5:03BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Matt Bartkowski · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 12:51BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 2:51TORNazem KadriPPGWGAssists: Cody Franson, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:48BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:13BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:13TORDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:13BOSKevan Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:22TORPaul Ranger: Interference2 min
- P3 18:46TORNikolay Kulemin: Holding2 min
- OT 1:52BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Marchand8:05
xG 0.90–0.05 (95%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic14:14
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 22–8goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith4:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Kelly – Caron – Smith6:10
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug16:27
xG 1.06–0.36 (75%)attempts 25–10goals 2–0
- Chara – Boychuk2:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton15:23
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Kadri – D'Amigo2:33
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:46
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
- McClement – Bodie – Kulemin13:33
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Bolland – Raymond6:57
xG 0.00–0.70 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Ranger5:21
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Ranger – Rielly2:42
xG 0.05–0.05 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson7:57
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).