Thu, Apr 3, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 010 | 16 | 02 | 0 | 227 |
| CHI | 05 | 110 | 18 | 03 | 1 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:19MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:29CHIBen SmithAssists: Brandon Saad, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P3 2:45CHIBryan BickellAssists: Jeremy Morin · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P3 18:06MINErik HaulaAssists: Justin Fontaine · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
- 2. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 3. CHI Marian Hossa scored
- 4. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 5. CHI Ben Smith stopped
- 6. MIN Jason Pominville stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 10:06CHIKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:15MINErik Haula: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:15CHIJeremy Morin: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:15MINDany Heatley: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kruger won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle16:25
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Cooke – Haula – Fontaine4:49
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Pominville – Moulson – Haula8:55
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Heatley – Veilleux – Dowell5:28
xG 0.08–0.03 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon21:30
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Blum – Scandella8:09
xG 0.34–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser2:30
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Smith – Saad11:13
xG 0.99–0.40 (71%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Bickell – Regin – Morin7:25
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Kruger – Bollig – Nordstrom8:45
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Hossa – Sharp – Shaw15:32
xG 0.24–0.54 (30%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Rundblad8:35
xG 0.83–0.06 (93%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook17:47
xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Hjalmarsson20:02
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).