Fri, Apr 4, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 218 | 112 | 438 |
| CBJ | 113 | 28 | 06 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: R.J. Umberger, Jared Boll · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 17:10CHIJeremy MorinAssists: Michal Rozsival, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 0:36CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 4:14CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 10:42CHIMarian HossaAssists: Kris Versteeg, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 12:47CBJArtem AnisimovPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 19:56CHIBen SmithGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Backhand, 0.37 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:08CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:12CBJFedor Tyutin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:20CHIBrandon Bollig: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:25CBJJared Boll: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:25CHIBryan Bickell: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:25CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:31CHINick Leddy: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shaw won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Regin – Morin9:08
xG 0.61–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Smith – Saad9:50
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kruger – Bollig – Nordstrom8:17
xG 0.17–0.29 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Shaw12:06
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Leddy13:14
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook16:39
xG 0.88–0.70 (56%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Leddy2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Anisimov – Atkinson11:48
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Frattin – Johansen – Jenner9:30
xG 0.31–0.11 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Umberger – Boll5:59
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Comeau – Letestu – Calvert8:18
xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Murray14:24
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski15:39
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- Johnson – Prout19:43
xG 0.58–0.83 (41%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).