Fri, Apr 4, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 2, Florida Panthers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 26 | 05 | 217 |
| FLA | 011 | 117 | 07 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:34CGYKenny AgostinoAssists: Brian McGrattan, Chad Billins · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 2:21FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Brandon Pirri · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 6:09CGYMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:29FLAScottie Upshall: Interference2 min
- P1 17:01CGYKris Russell: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:49CGYLance Bouma: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 9:42FLAColby Robak: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:53FLABobby Butler: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:20FLABrian Campbell: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cammalleri won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Westgarth – Bouma – Hanowski6:54
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Galiardi – Agostino8:14
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Hudler – Van Brabant9:40
xG 0.28–0.49 (37%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Glencross – Colborne – Monahan9:58
xG 0.05–0.53 (8%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Breen – Billins10:34
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 7–16goals 2–0
- Butler – Brodie2:47
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie2:41
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWinchester – Bjugstad – Howden7:36
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck8:15
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Bergenheim – Butler13:06
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Barch – Hayes – Pirri6:42
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Gudbranson13:34
xG 0.82–0.17 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Robak – Olsen10:38
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Campbell – Olsen2:39
xG 0.02–0.02 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).